Monday 25 June 2012

Inflation tamed, but economic growth falters

The CPI this June was the lowest it has been for the last 38 months, with only a 6.9% increase from the same period last year. Government stimulus package to give relief to struggling businesses Inflation was kept low even after the deposit interest ceiling was reduced to 9% per year, and was 0.26% less than the levels of May, the first decrease in 38 months. The CPI rose by only 2.52% from December last year causing optimism about meeting the national target of 7-8% inflation. According to a forecast of economists in Vietnam Centre for Economic and Policy Research (VEPR) under the Hanoi's Vietnam National University, this year inflation will remain around 6.2%. Domestic CPI has risen by 12.2% in this first six months compared to the same period last year. According to data from statistical offices decreases in inflation were reported in the country's two major cities, 0.17% for Hanoi, the largest fall in 10 years, and 0.43% in HCM City, the biggest decrease in 23 months. Nationwide, the price of food products was down by 0.23-0.78%, while prices in the food service industry increased by 0.6%. The Ministries of Industry and Trade and Finance reduced the price of petroleum, helping to reduce transport fees by 1.64%. Prices of housing and construction materials were down by 1.21%, telecommunication by 0.02% and entertainment and tourism by 0.27%. However, prices of beverages and cigarettes rose 0.33%, clothing by 0.62%, household appliances by 0.46%, education by 0.1% while the price of USD was by 0.2%. Around 70% of enterprises incurred losses in the first quarter and 22,000 enterprises stopped operations or went bankrupt and the GDP in the second quarter rose by only 4.5%. Some measures have been taken by management agencies to assist with the growth problem, including salary increases, interest rate reductions and setting a credit growth target of 2% each month. The Vice PM, Nguyen Xuan Phuc, said that, until the end of this year, The Government create a stimulus package that will pump VND21 billion (USD1,002,865) a month in to the economy, adding that inflation is not expected to become a problem again in coming years. After a recent NA session, some major measures were passed to support enterprises and people, including reducing taxes on businesses by 30% in 2012 and adding personal income tax exemptions for individuals in the lowest brackets from July 1 to December 31. Vietnam tours
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